The Rockets are a Mystery

The "Basketball for Thought" is a commentary by Kris Gardner.

November 2, 2004

The NBA tips off its 2004 - 2005 season Tuesday, November 2, a.k.a. Election Day. The Houston Rockets will help begin the "Basketball New Year" versus the NBA's defending champions Detroit Pistons on national television. As with practically every sport, analysts have made predictions regarding which teams will finish where as well as which team is the favorite to win it all. I'm an analyst; so, I'm no different than my colleagues. However, one team seems to have generated a great deal of debate -- the Houston Rockets. I've talked with colleagues; read articles; and seen preview shows on television and the predictions regarding the Rockets have ranged from missing the playoffs to reaching the Western Conference Finals. Why such a disparity?

First of all, the Rockets are positioned in arguably the toughest division in the entire league: the Southwest Division which, besides the Rockets, features the San Antonio Spurs, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, and the New Orleans Hornets. Last season, all five teams reached the playoffs. Consequently, for the Rockets to win the division will be a difficult first step along the road to a title.

Next, the Rockets are still in the Western Conference. Despite, Shaq's bolt to the Miami Heat and the Eastern Conference, the West is still the better conference because of the number of quality teams from to bottom. Besides the Seattle Supersonics, the Golden State Warriors, and the perennially bad Los Angeles Clippers, each of the remaining 12 teams in the Western Conference is good enough to reach the postseason. Removing the Minnesota Timberwolves (even with the bitching from Latrell Sprewell, Sam Cassell, and Wally Szczerbiak) and the Spurs — both squads are locks for the playoffs, leaves 10 teams battling for six playoff spots. Therefore, simple math says 4 good Western Conference clubs could be sitting home watching the playoffs.

Third, the Rockets point guard position is shaky. Head coach Jeff Van Gundy has repeatedly said he likes his point guards and what each (Charlie Ward, Tyronn Lue, and a healthy Bob Sura) brings to the team. However, not many basketball people seem to share JVG's optimism about his point guards. Numerous people cite the point guard spot as the Rockets weakest link. People don't believe Ward is quick enough nor durable enough to last the season. While others believe Lue is more of a scorer than a distributor; and, quite simply, Sura is not a point guard. Bob is a functional point guard once in a while; but, not game to game. I agree with my colleagues; however, none of us is Jeff Van Gundy. We shall see who's right: JVG or us.

Next, the power forward spot (re: Juwan Howard and Maurice Taylor) is not tough enough. Howard and Taylor can score; but, neither player is a great rebounder nor a banger. Clarence Weatherspoon can provide toughness; but, he cannot handle the elite forwards in the Division nor the West. Scott Padgett is a good outside shooter; but, he doesn't instill much confidence on defense.

I'm not going to discuss the eight new faces (9, counting new point guard Andre Barrett) as a reason for concern because chemistry takes time to build; and, the team';s doing the "little things" to win will be more difficult than building chemistry. Clearly, Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming form a very good beginning toward reaching the playoffs and winning a championship. However, I'm not convinced the supporting cast is good enough to solve problems like rebounding; turnovers; and perimeter shooting.

I've gone back and forth with my prediction; but, I do believe the Rockets will make the playoffs this season with about 47 wins. However, I do not believe the team will advance to the second round. Let the new year begin!